Despite Rahul’s acceptence to be a PM, scattered non BJP opposition makes things strongly tough n cumbersome

The statement of Congress president Rahul Gandhi at Bangaluru yesterday while answering to the questions of media at Town Hall congregation has while on the one hand amounted to boosting the morale of the entire party’s rank and file across the country, particularly in Karnataka where the state goes to poll shortly it has also send across a direct message to the non BJP opposition forces and parties nationally that Congress party and its undisputed leader the Nehru Gandhi family scion would be the ultimate nucleus of the opposition unity in the offing. While the Bhartiya Janata Party has ridiculed Rahul’s statement saying that he has every right to dream, the spokesman of the Congress ally Nationalist Congress Party has consented to support him for the top slot of the country in case things materialise favourably in 2019.

However, the TMC, TRS, SP and BSP has not commented saying that it is too early to predict unambiguously indicating that leaders like TMC Mamta Bannerjee and others who are trying hard to materialise the non BJP opposition unity asking Congress to support and back the regional tie ups are also vyving for this top slot other than Rahul Gandhi. It may be recalled that the TMC chief Mamta Bannerjee had been in the forefront for non BJPopposition unity since the last few months and had been personally meeting the heads of the regional and national parties like BSP, SP, JD (S), NCP n left parties including the Congress chief Rahul and Sonia Gandhi exploring possibilities of a future co hesive unity asking Congress in particular to support the regional parties where ever they are in strong n viable position and seek regional parties’ support where the Congress is politically significant.

Her unity initiative gained momentum after the candidate of Samajwadi party won in two seats at Gorakhpur and Phoolpur in UP byelections with the support of the BSP, both the constituencies being the traditional strong holds of the BJP’s chief minister Yogi Aditya Nath and deputy CM Keshav Maurya. Similarly in Alwar and an other parliamentary constituency in Rajasthan byelection too the opposition supported Congress candidates have won hands down defeating the BJP candidates despite the party being in power in Rajasthan.

Though the Bhartiya Janata Party led NDA has been on the incessant winning spree in about 21 states of the country after Narendra Modi assumed the prime minister ship in 2014 with his political charisma still intact despite demonetisation and GST implementation but political analysts say that there have been a continuous downward slide in prime minister Narendra Modi’s image during the last one year on inflation and jobs’front with opposition accusing the former as the PM of rhetorics who just believes in allegedly giving false promises but not implementing them on the ground level.

But despite all this if one goes by the ground realities prime minister Narendra Modi still holds the upper hand, the hard fact being the badly scattered non BJP opposition and their leaders possessing their own respective over ambition to capture the top slot of the country rather than arriving at the unanimity for a single choice for PM against Narendra Modi. In addition to this the increasing safronisation, massive resourses at hand, enhanced Modi image and several other factors of capable image building on natiinal and international scenerio, do not stand in equanimity to him as far as the candidature of Rahul Gandhi is concerned say political analysts despite Kathua outrage and other negative factors rampantly going against Modi and his government.

Let’s analyse the statewise political situation to arrive at the final conclusion in this context.

Uttar Pradesh is the largest state of the country from where 80 MPs are elected,
today BJP has more than 70 MPs from here with a tie up with a regional party Apna Dal. Congress is a gone factor in this largest state where it ruled for years in the past with BSP and SP having eaten its ( Congress’s) largest chunk in terms of the Backward, Dalit and Muslim vote bank which once used to be the formers’ traditional vote Bank.

In 2019 national election the two parties, BSP and SP including Congress if united and succeeded in amicable seat sharing can put a formidable challage to the BJP n NDA, provided Modi’s charisma remains on the downward slide and the saffronisation factor dose not fructify.

In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan where the BJP is in the ruling for a long time, the anti incumbency can be a massive drawback for the saffron party but it depends, as to how strongly and effectively would the Congress, able and tactical to capitalise the situation in its favour alongwith the opposition parties who have a little or negligible say there.

In Bihar, Nitish Kumar’s government is in power for the second successive term with the support of BJP with Congress having been in a bad position politically having small number of MLAs. However, Lalu’s RJD is quite in grip of the backward, dalit and muslim votes but he being in jail could negatively effect the RJD and Congress chances to a great extent. But anti incumbency factor against Nitish Kumar and the BJP tie up could also not be ruled out which may perhaps help the Congress RJD alliance to a great extent.

In Bengal Mamta Bannerjee is a strong bet but the BJP is trying to capitalise on hindu majority votes as the recent Hindu Muslim riots suggest the saffron party’s new manipulative tactics’ to counter Mamta Banerjee’s pro secular and pro muslim stance.
In Gujarat and Uttarakhand too the saffron party is bound to be on adownward slide as anti incumbency ofthe last 25 years ule may have implications to a great extent. After all everyday would not be Sunday for BJP in 2019 say Congressmen.

Conclusively, it can be said that things and situations are not so politically bright for the BJP led NDA in 2019 as were in 2014, but are similarly equally challenging for the non BJP opposition as well.

To make a strong dent on the BJP led NDA chances in 2019, a cohesive non BJP left, democratic unity with unanimity on a single prime ministerial candidate is the need of the hour. The situation however is fluid but still on the side of Narendra Modi, the reason being the chances of massive saffronisation mood swing of the public, certain consolidated achievements of Modi government and the badly scattered and splintered non amicable anti BJP opposition.

However , when the Congress was in power during the previous two terms for ten protracted years and time was quite ripe for being the union minister and even prime minister when Dr. Manmohan Singh was the PM Rahul never aspired for the top slot of the country. Her mother Sonia Gandhi too rejected the proposal for being the nation’s PM and instead made way for politically novice but a renowned economist and former governor Dr. Manmohan Singh who according to the BJP n NDA was remote controlled from 10 Janpath all the time. They is a saying in politics that grab opportunities when one gets them otherwise time never waits for anybody and I think same is the case with the Congress president now. What’s your take friends?

SUNIL NEGI, PRESIDENT, UTTARAKHAND JOURNALISTS FORUM