Kairana by poll significant to test BSP, SP’s political clout in UP after victories in Phulpur n Sitapur

The byelection in Kairana, Uttar Pradesh slated for May 28 is going to be the barometer of the popularity of prime minister Narendra Modi, the BJP as well as the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Aditya Nath. It will on the other hand also test the relevance and significance of the anti BJP opposition front or alliance that is slowly but steadily taking final shape against the BJP and Modi, particularly in view of the 2019 general elections. It’s primarily again a litmus lest for the SP, BSP combine who are outrightly backing the RLD candidate in Kairana after having earlier scored victries in two bye elections

Though the byelections are also being held in Palaghat and two other parliamentary constituencies and 28 assembly seats in other states including Noorpur in UP but Kairana by poll is important because its the parliamentary seat of the largest state which brings 80 MPs in Lok Sabha and several law makers in the upper house and also impacts the national political scenerio of the country.

All would remember that the recent two by poll defeats of the ruling BJP and the victory of BSP supported SP candidates in Phulpur and Sitapur, the home turfs of the UP CM and deputy CM have tremendously denigrated the ruling party’s image and in a way led to the assumption that prime minister Modi and Amit Shah are losing their political clout consistently in view of the anti BJP opposition unity.

The Kairana seat has been vacated by the sitting BJP MP Hukum Singh’s untimely demise which was won by him by a huge margin of over five lakh votes defeating the Lok Dal candidate in 2014 after the riots that polarised the Jat and Gurjar votes to a huge extent.

The Kairana seat however had been the stronghold of the Rashtriya Lok Dal. The BJP has given the ticket to Hukum Singh’s daughter Mriganka Singh to cash on the sympathy vote and a one sided vote bank of the Gurjars who are about one lakh twenty five thiudand in number.

The RLD has allotted ticket to the muslim women candidate banking on the majority minority votes which are more than 5 lakhs, a sizeable chunk to decide the winning chances. Dalits votes too are about two lakhs in numbers and the Jat votes over 1.5 lakhs.

In all, there are 19 lakh votes in this constituency. After the successful example of the one sided victory of SP candidates in Phulpur and Sitapur defeating the BJP in the saffron vote bank turf of Yogi Adityanath, the Congress, BSP and SP have not fielded their candidates but have promised to support the RLD candidate of Choudhary Ajit Singh, who happens to be a women from the minority community.

The BJP is trying to capitalise on the majority vote bank already apprehensive of the minority votes likely to go in favour of Ajit Singh’s RLD candidate, the Dalits too may probably back the RLD in view of the BSP’s support to Chaudhary Ajit Singh.

Congress support may also help to an extent to derive votes of youths and other communities apart from minorities and the Dalits.

Sources reveal that the polarisation trend which helped Hukum Singh of BJP win this seat with a heavy margin in 2014 may perhaps not be the factor this time and the opposition unity minus BJP may work well in favour the the RLD candidate who is already having the advantage of the large chunk of minority vote bank.

The Jats and Gurjars who had inclined towards the BJP in view of the influence of the Hindu Muslim riots and played a pivotal role in the victory of the BJP candidate Hukum Singh may still be there but 25 to 30% of them may tilt this time in the favour of RLD and earlier mentor Ajit Singh whose prestige is actually at stake.

After the formation of the Congress JD(S) combine government in Karnataka and the credible victory in Phulpur and Sitapur by elections, the morale of the anti BJP opposition in the saffron ruled state seemed to be quite high, particularly after the involvement of the ruling BJP MLA in a rape and murder case in Unnao, grave unemployment and existing agrarian crisis in the state compounded with several other factors as the detetiorating law and order situation, false encounters and inflation of essential commodities.

The alleged communal hatred environment in the state and the country has also led to the consolidation of the minority vote bank to a huge extent, who are more than five lakhs and a major factor towards victory are bound to be an asset n a credible winning factor for the RLD candidate Tabbassum.

Since prime minister Narendra Modi usually avoids campaigning in the byelections it may also amount to a big loss to the BJP which is now left with the only alternative to bank on jat leaders like former minister Baliyan and the saffron robed chief minister Yogi Aditya Nath.
What’s your take, friends?