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December 22, 2024 2:05 PM

Politics

Severe competition between Modi n Rahul but the former still ahead in various pre poll surveys ?

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Now, since the dates of general elections have been finalised from April 11 to May 19, when 900 million electorates would elect a government by voting in 10 lakh polling booths to elect a new Lok Sabha comprising of 543 lawmakers, the ruling BJP led NDA as well as the 22 other non BJP national parties, having pledged to dethrone the Modi government at the centre, though still scattered on certain matters, such as differences on seat adjustments, have tightened their belts to the hilt.

Since the time is too short, all the political parties have started finalising the lists of their prospective candidates expeditiously.

While the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party seems to be in a much comfortable position as compared to Congress n other opposition parties as it’s full of resources being in power at the centre and about 17 states of the country and Prime minister Narendra Modi having been busy since long in hectic campaigning and inaugurating myriad number of over ambitious projects at the pan India level, including fiercely countering the opposition on the post Pulwama situation trying to derive maximum advantage through spreading the feeling of ultra nationalism, the main opposition party Congress n its vociferous young n dynamic chief Rahul Gandhi seems to be struggling hard to expose the ruling party government at the centre n prime minister in particular of controvertial Rafale imbroglio n also accusing him of allegedly doing politics at the expense of the sacrifices n martyrdom of the Armed Forces personel.

However, the rest of the opposition barring Rahul Gandhi are also busy exposing the ruling party governments in states and the centre for allegedly dividing the society in the name of religion, Ram Temple, lynching of the minority community persons in the name of eating habits n for spreading communal hatred in the name of cow vigilantism n thrashing the Kashmiri migrants for deriving political milieage to the core.

After the declaration of election dates from April to May there have been resentment by the opposition parties as well as representatives of minority community barring Owaisi, castigating the government of pre strategically doing so in the month of May when muslims of the country would be on Roza and would therefore not able to vote.

The anti BJP opposition leaders has accused the ruling party dispensation of hatching a conspiracy to ensure that the majority of the minority community votes which usually go against them are not polled due to the muslims being on Ramazaan fasts.

While this controversy is on, the Bhartiya Janata Party which is solely banking on the majority community votes finds the opposition being hyped in media, on this point, more fruitful as such protests by minority community allegedly amount to consolidation of their majority community vote bank.

It’s an open fact that after the saffron party’s assuming power, incidents of cow vigilantism, attacks on eating habits n thrashing of Kashmiries after the deadly Pulvama attacks gained momentum.

However, the prime minister Narendra Modi, though late, had strongly objected to such muscle tactics n criminal acts resulting in registration of cases against these jingoists.

But the message ultimately goes ahead encouraging polarisation.The Ram Temple issue too is being taken with utmost seriousness with BJP leaders like Uma Bharati saying that Temple construction is the sole n privileged right of the majority community.

There are attempts to polarise the majorty votes in this election apart from the introduction of the world’s largest health insurance scheme, the Ayushman Bharat insurance n medical facility for the lower middle class of the country compounded with a new revolutionery scheme of 3000 Rs monthly pension in unorganised sector, free gas connections on wide scale, exemption in income tax limit raised to five laks n 10 % reservation in jobs in educational institutions n government jobs etc.

However, the Congress too has guaranted several significant concessions to the poor n farmers of the country in case it comes to power with Rahul Gandhi establishing a mark on exposing the govt on Rafale Jet fighter deal n on encouraging crony capitalism.

Meanwhile, various opinion poll agencies n television channels of the country have started predicting results about the general elections according to their own surveys.

While some say that the saffron party is re – coming to power with abang with Modi magic n post Pulwama situation going to BJP’s advantage, some predict the downfall in prime minister’s popularity graph from 74% to 53 thus benefitting the Congress n mahagathbandhan and also opening the doors for Rahul becoming the next Prime Minister.

These sample survey results have been objected to by several political parties earlier, on the grounds that they influence the election results to a great extend by motivating the voters n therefore should be fully banned but of no avail.

However some of the predictions have come to be true as well. According to the latest Survey of India today Congress president Rahul Gandhi is quite ahead in popularity amongst the minorities and dalits of the country though still lagging behind for the prime minister’s post with Modi being 52% more acceptable that Rahul being on the second pedestal securing 33 % votes.

The latest C survey opinion poll results indicate that the Bhartiya Janata Party under the charismatic leadership of Narendra Gandhi after the Pulwama tragedy is in a position to secure 230 seats n 40 seats to NDA partners whereas after holding alliance with Mizo National Front in Mizoram, VSR Congress, Telengana Rashtra Samittee and Biju Janata its totally tally may enhance to 300 seats.

The survey shows Congress doubling its present tally of 44 to 86 sets or slightly more with the alliance partners/ UPA allies getting 55 seats. The survey unambiguosly predicts that if the Congress party forms an alliance after the elections with the LDF ( Left democratic Front) , All India United Democratic Front, Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee and the UP alliance of RLD, SP n BSP then its total anti BJP tally will go to 226.

These predictions clearly shows that Modi’s BJP led NDA is still forming the government in 2019 though the Congress party will improve its total tally to just double of its present strength. According to the BJP MP n National Media Incharge Anil Baluni the prime minister Narendra Modi will address around 100 rallies during his election campaign schedule all over India while BJP’s supremo Amit Shah will address 200 public meetings.

Sunil Negi hails from Uttarakhand and is a veteran journalist and author. He is a prolific writer and has carved a name for himself in the media world. He received the 'Golden Achiever Award' in the '90th AIAC Excellence Awards 2019' for his book ''Havoc in Heaven'' based on the tragedy that struck Uttarakhand in which thousands of people lost their lives. He is also the President of Uttarakhand Journalists Forum and majorly writes on Politics, Current Affairs, and Social Issues.

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