THREE STATES’ ELECTIONS AND 2019, WHO’LL WIN AND WHO’LL BITE THE DUST?

As the elections to the three BJP ruled states viz. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh are coming closer and thereafter the national election of 2019 both the ruling BJP led NDA and the Congress led UPA and other non BJP opposition parties, not directly alligned to Congress but opposed to the saffron party have become active to revive themselves and their respective party cadres at the grass roots to ensure their victories at the hustings.

While the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party and the NDA partners are fully armed with money, muscle, administrative support and with discreation to announce various pro people schemes or freebies at the centre and in the 20 states being ruled by them, the main opposition Congress, BSP, SP, RJD, JD, CPM, CPI and other regional parties are not so well equipped with adequate funding required in these elections.

They have only and only one option and it’s to find and search burning issues on which they can degrade, demoralise or defeat the ruling party at the hustings. If we go by the analysis of the political pundits in the context of three states being ruled by the BJP for two to three terms, the usual anti incumbency factors and the increasing incidents of farmers suicides compounded with the issue of unemployment and the incessant increase in the petrol, diesal and LPG prices highest during the last seven decades may be the credible reasons for the defeat of the BJP in these states. But the unity of the non BJP opposition in some states by way of amicable seat sharing arrangement would be the main factor that may lead to the victory as division of the opposition votes have always led to the victory of the safron party which always posseses and capitalises on the hindi card at the hustings.

The party’s victory in the twenty states including the massive defeat of the SP in Uttar Pradesh has amply proved unambiguously that its hindu polarisation card has so nicely fructified that party like SO with a consolidated backward and minority votes have to bite the dust even on the seats dominated by the backward n minority votes. The issues of cow vigilantism, BJP’s objection on eating habits, alleged anti muslim stance like issuance of provocative slogans and statements on pro majoroty issues etc etc have always helped the safron party regain and consolidate its majoritarianism aspect this gaining politically to the hilt.

In the past elections in various states the failure aspects of the demonetisation and the GST execution including farmets suicides could not deter the pro hindu voters to vote for the saffron party. As a result today it’s ruling on 20 states and the centre. However, if we look at the comparative study at the political images of both Rahul Gandhi and prime minister Narendra Modi, the recent opinion polls have pronounced Modi as a winner compared to Rahul Gandhi for the chair of prime minister in the individual leadership qualities and charisma.

The reason is clear, while the policies and working of the BJP lead NDA and prime minister Modi has taken a downward slide during the last two years in the context of unemployment, inflation, rising petro prices, his rhetorical false assurances, alleged corruption in Rafale deal as accused by the opposition and the degrading agrarian sector with increasing farmers suicides, his personal leadership charisma compared to Rahul Gandhi as the future prime minister is rated to just half of what Narendra Modi is Modi himself has said in several of his public and national executive meeting that the programme less non BJP conglomeration of leaders having differing ambition for the prime minister’s single chair is the greatest advantage for the BJP and his return to power in 2019.

The point is therefore unambiguous unless or until the entire non BJP opposition unanimously decide their leader and give up their futile ego and squeezed political interest and go for a broad based national and regional amicable seat sharing exercise to avoid splitting of votes, the incumbent prime minister Narendra Modi and his BJP led NDA os bound to come.

However some senior congressmen say that even if Rahul Gandhi does’nt get an opportunity in 2019 to be the prime minister the time and ground is wide open for him in the 2024. Rahul is today just 48 and PM Modi is nearing 70. He has 20 years in his account to rule for 10/ 15 years after 2024. By 24 Rahul would be 54 and would still be quite a younger prime minister to rule the country for a decade of more. What’s your take friends?