Which way the political wind flow in Uttarakhand ?

The political situation in the himalayan state of Uttarakhand as on date is quite confusing though the ruling saffron party still seems to have a slight edge due to the sentiments n passion of nationalism infused in them after the Pulwama tragedy n subsequent air strikes on the terror camps of JEM in Balakot compounded with the safe return of wing commander Abhinandan in just two days of captivity in Pakistan. Uttarakhand is primarily a state from where in an average every one member of the fourth family serves in Indian army.

This fact of the feeling of ultra nationalism n pro hindu stance can be substantiated from the fact that prior to 1992 when Babri Masjid was not demolished, the Bhartiya Janata Party or earlier Jansangh had no roots in Uttarakhand known as the land of abode of Gods, where the political party of freedom movement, Congress literally ruled the hearts and minds of Garhwal n Kumaon hills then under the jurisdiction of Congress.

Every person of the Uttrakhand hills then, though under undivided Uttar Pradesh used to feel proud to be addressed as a Congressman. Congress was in the blood of the old generation. There was only Congress in the hills of Garhwal n Kumaon with Bahuguna factor coming up lateron after the election of 1983/ 84 when the then stalwart H. N. Bahuguna fought the mighty Indira Gandhi’s candidate Chandra Mohan Singh Negi of Congress from Pauri Garhwal parliamentary constituency.

After the demolition of Babri Masjid n enhancement of Ram Lahar post 1992 the hindu wave erupted in the Uttarakhand hills of Garhwal n Kumaon and majority of the people got influenced by the saffron party in the name of lord Rama n thus the BJP made its decisive stronghold in the valleys of Uttarakhand hills followed by granting of separate statehood during the BJP led government at the centre under the prime minister Ship of Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Since then about 19 years have elapsed and Uttarakhand has witnessed 9 chief ministers n governments of BJP n Congress on alternative basis. No third party regional or national can make its ground in Uttarakhand as a formidable political force.

But the political trend after every assembly or parliamentary elections have been of change, irrespective of the fact as to which party’s government has done good or bad.

People of this Himalayan state have always voted for change unambiguously giving an impression that they were never satisfied with performance of either Congress or BJP.

But the last general election n the assembly elections in the state of Uttarakhand in 2014 n 2017 respectively have witnessed the saffron party gaining historic majority in the state by winning 57 seats out of 70 and also giving all the five seats to BJP in parliament.

It was indeed the charisma of the Narendra Modi wave and polarisation of the Hindu vote bank.

Even the Congress chief minister Harish Rawat lost from both the assembly seats from Haridwar n Kumaon giving an impression of Congress having been completely routed out of Uttarakhand.

Congress has never ever suffered such a crude setback or debacle in the 18 year old history of Uttarakhand after its coming into a separate existence.

Now the tickets of all the candidates from BJP as well as the Congress have been finalised.

Leaders of both the political parties have tightened their belts to ensure their victories.

Since the Bhartiya Janata Party is in power at the centre as well as in the state, there is no dearth of resources n money power for them n their candidates whereas the Congress party did have crunch of funds n resources but they have a little bit edge in the sense that the electorates of Uttarakhand usually go for change after every election which do accords the Congress party an added advantage.

The Congress n the BJP are both ridden with factionalism and intercine squabbles and the sidelining of two veteran leaders of BJP who were the sitting MPs viz Major General BC Khanduri and Bhagat Singh Koshiyari from Pauri n Nainital seats will definitely put adverse impact on the winning chances of Tirath Singh Rawat n Ajay Bhatt, the current BJP nominees from both the above seats. Now, a popular exservicemen n hero of the post Kedarnath tragedy Colonel Kothiyal has also joined the fray.

Moreover, while Major general Khanduri has himself expressed his inability to contest due to his over age and fatigued health, his unceremonious ouster from the chairmanship of the Defence Committee of Parliament n not giving him the due respect in the all weather road project etc has annoyed n disenchanted his son n supporters who’d recently joined Congress n has been given the ticket from Pauri against the BJP nominee Tirath Singh Rawat.

Similarly badly annoying n angering the veteran party leader, ex CM n Nainital MP Bhagat Singh Koshiyari n his good number of supporters by cutting his ticket n giving it to Ajay Bhatt is bound to have an adverse impact on the Nainital seat as well, compounded with the anti incumbency factor.

On the Tehri Garhwal seat the local electorates are not at all happy n impressed with the performance of the Tehri Maharani Raj Lakshmi who the electorates say, was conspicuous by her absence during the last five year, having no or negligible connect with the local populace.

Moreover, completely sidelining of the former Uttarakhand CM n ex MP from Tehri Vijay Bahuguna n his son Saket, the BJP has also earned the wrath of this family and their hundreds of workers who are bound to work against Maharani Lakshmi Shah by strengthening the hands of the Congress candidate, resulting in her possible defeat.

In Haridwar seat the former CM Harish Rawat seems to be on a better pedestal having been extremely active during the last two years after losing the state elections.

His elevation at the central level as the all India general secretary of Congress party has also elevated his image as a politician on the rise. On the contrary Dr. Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank carries behind him certain charges of alleged corruption, though not proved, but may be used by his Congress rival in the election.

Dr. Nishank had however been associated with the development works of his constituency but a sitting MP always has the disadvantage of anti incumbency which a seasoned leader like Harish Rawat is quite capable of exploiting. Moreover, being the ex MP from here n national general secretary of the Congress there is no dearth of local and outside workers who would be working for him dedicatedly ensuring his sure sort win.

The situation in the Almora reserve seat is also quite difficult for the sitting MP n union state minister for textiles Ajay Tamta from the anti incumbency point of view say political analysts.

But he had been quite active in his constituency during his last five year tenure contributing in introducing air n train services for the convenience of the people of Almora apart fro being with them in their thick n thin.

He brought number of developmental projects to his area and had been connecting himself with the local populace since long.

Ajay Tamta had also been very active in the social media sites viz facebook, twitter, instagram n whatapp accquainting his fans, followers n educated electorates about the various developmental works of his constituency but in the context of spending his MP lad fund he lacks behind say sources.

On the contrary his arch Congress rival Pradeep Tamta is a Rajya Sabha member who has hardly been active in Almora these days but being a leader of various socio political movements his popularity still exists amongst the masses.

The role of the present chief minister of Uttarakhand Trivendra singh Rawat however also comes into consideration in these elections. His contribution, negativity and positivity will also play an important role in deciding the future of the BJP candidates.

He is being dubbed as a not very functional CM of the state who had been extremely complacent n non responsive to the demands of Gairsain as the capital of Uttarakhand and was immensely instrumental in encouraging the sale of liquor to the interiors of Uttarakhand against which lots of movements took place n people of the state highly antagonised.

The Uttarakhand’s economy too is in doldrums with the state’s deficit crossing the collosal 48000 crore mark. Hundreds of thousands of youths are still jobless n the health n education sectors are in total jeopardy.

While the Congress party has tried to expose the BJP government of its ill doings n enhanced corruption in bureaucracy through its widespread Parivartan rally, Aakrosh Yatras n Mera Mait programmes led by state president Pritam Singh, Indira Hridyesh n Harish Rawat, the internal bickerings in the Congress’s state unit may prove to be a disaster for the party in the coming months.

However, the fight between the Congress n BJP will be of neck to neck nature in all the seats of Uttarakhand but the state having the dominance of exservicemen n the present army troopers it looks as if the post Pulwama narrative, if goes well may benefit the saffron party diluting every other issue of employment, agrarian crisis, women issues n of the issue of mass exodus to cities n towns.

But the Congress is not behind and has the advantage of exposing the BJP on Modi’s failures on employment guarantee, black money issue, enhanced migration to cities from hills, closure of schools, non availability of health facilities, increasing corruption, liquor policy of the state government spoiling families so on n so forth.

But being the best orator n banking on post Pulwama situation Prime minister Narendra Modi’s few public meetings may turn the tables in favour of the saffron party in Uttarakhand say political analysts.

The Congress party has only one concrete solution to this impasse n that is, Priyanka Gandhi’s minimum eight public meetings.

If it happens, no power on earth can stop Congress stage victory on all the five parliamentary seats of Uttarakhand. What’s your take friends?